We talk to David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, about the science of forecasting. Who or what are the superforecasters? How can they help governments make better decisions? And will intelligent machines ever be able to outdo the humans at seeing into the future? From Cummings to coronavirus, a conversation about the knowns, unknowns and what lies beyond that.
Tetlock discovered that some people make better predictions than others.
Good superforecasters isolate themselves emotionally from the problem: you have to be cold about it.
There’s a difference between having more superforecasting and more superforecasters.
Superforecasters aren’t decision makers: they give you the odds.
Tetlock’s book places a huge emphasis on human characteristics.
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And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking
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