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FiveThirtyEight Politics

201 EpisodesProduced by ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen DrukeWebsite

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

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Farewell

February 22nd, 2024

0:39

An important message from RadioPublic

Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment?

March 28th, 2024

54:56

A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color …

Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?

March 25th, 2024

46:36

Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s …

538 Debate Club: Should TikTok Be Banned?

March 21st, 2024

56:52

Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its …

How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?

March 18th, 2024

56:23

The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the …

Do Campaign Stops Actually Matter?

March 14th, 2024

48:09

After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops …

Does Gen Z Really Care More About That Viral TikTok Than Politics?

March 11th, 2024

50:26

The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it …

A Very Political State Of The Union

March 8th, 2024

41:42

In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie …

Super Tuesday Brings A Couple Surprises

March 6th, 2024

37:32

In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by …

What To Watch For On Super Tuesday

March 5th, 2024

1:11:00

Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really …

What To Make Of The Protest Votes In Michigan

February 28th, 2024

48:50

The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent …

After South Carolina Loss, What Is Nikki Haley's Plan?

February 25th, 2024

48:11

In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former …

Foreign Policy Has Become A Family Feud

February 22nd, 2024

51:31

Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in …

What Comes Next In Trump's Trials

February 19th, 2024

57:17

This Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of …

Democrats Notch A Win In The Battle For The Suburbs

February 14th, 2024

39:40

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional …

The Political Conversation About Biden's Age

February 13th, 2024

1:01:01

Voters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this …

The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election

February 8th, 2024

41:59

What is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more …

The Tortured Pundits Department

February 5th, 2024

49:42

How much influence does Taylor Swift actually have? Would her endorsement in a presidential election move voters? Has her presence at NFL games …

How Americans Feel About The Economy

February 1st, 2024

37:57

The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the …

Will Politics Or Policy Win Out At The Border?

January 30th, 2024

1:07:51

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. …

The GOP Primary Is Basically Over

January 24th, 2024

34:02

In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even …

Is New Hampshire The End Of The GOP Primary?

January 23rd, 2024

1:01:26

The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron …

The View From New Hampshire

January 18th, 2024

43:12

With New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks …

Trump Wins Iowa. Now What?

January 16th, 2024

40:43

The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa, as well as the race for second place, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Learn more about your …

The Last Debate Before Iowa

January 11th, 2024

43:45

With just days until the Iowa caucuses, the crew reacts to a head-to-head debate between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as a town hall featuring former President Donald Trump.

No Sleep Till Iowa

January 8th, 2024

1:03:36

The Iowa caucuses are just a week away, and in this installment, the 538 Politics podcast sets its sights on the early states. Galen speaks with …

Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?

January 4th, 2024

53:45

The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win …

There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees… Right?

January 1st, 2024

57:55

Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." …

How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics

December 28th, 2023

48:53

Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." …

Our Presidential Primary System is An Accident

December 25th, 2023

37:22

Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." …

The 538 Podcast Holiday Party

December 21st, 2023

1:07:32

In this holiday installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks back at some of the most important political events of 2023 as well as some …

Reaction Podcast: Colorado Supreme Court Bars Trump From Ballot

December 20th, 2023

24:13

On this special reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Kimberly Wehle, professor of law at the University of Baltimore, and …

Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time

December 19th, 2023

1:07:01

The U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The …

Have Progressives Won The Economic Debate?

December 14th, 2023

36:05

In early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same …

What To Make Of Trump's 'Dictator' Comment

December 11th, 2023

51:22

Former President Donald Trump attracted attention for his answer in a town hall with Sean Hannity last week suggesting he would not abuse his power …

Did The Fourth Republican Debate Matter?

December 7th, 2023

37:06

Galen unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks.

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Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?

December 4th, 2023

1:03:54

In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron …

2024 Is The First ‘AI Election.’ What Does That Mean?

November 30th, 2023

47:20

Exactly one year ago today, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring …

Why The GOP May Be Ready To Say Goodbye To Santos

November 27th, 2023

48:42

The U.S. House gets back to work on Tuesday and one of its first orders of business is expected to be a vote on whether to expel Rep. George Santos of New York. A House ethics report concluded earlier this month that he …

What These Swing Voters Have To Say About The 2024 Election

November 20th, 2023

43:49

What makes swing voters swing? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen heads to Simi Valley, California and speaks with voters whose …

The Fight For Working-Class Voters

November 16th, 2023

50:33

In 2016, as has been widely reported, white working-class voters shifted decisively to the right. In 2020, working-class voters of color followed …

If The 2024 Election Were Held Today, Would Trump Win?

November 13th, 2023

1:03:42

To mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of …

Haley Takes On Ramaswamy And DeSantis

November 9th, 2023

39:19

The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast.

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The 2023 Elections Were Good For Democrats

November 8th, 2023

28:23

In this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew unpacks the results from election night 2023. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won …

Will Kentucky And Mississippi Elect Democrats?

November 6th, 2023

51:48

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very …

Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'

November 2nd, 2023

48:00

The former congressman and recent Texas transplant joins the podcast to discuss his new book, “Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty In Our Divided Country.” He reflects on the current state of the Republican Party, …

Pence Is Out, Phillips Is In

October 30th, 2023

1:01:34

The pool of candidates running for president grew by one and shrank by one in the past week. President Biden got a little-known Democratic challenger …

Our First-Ever House Speaker Draft

October 23rd, 2023

1:03:46

The House of Representatives has officially been without a permanent speaker for 20 days. After Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan failed to get enough support, nine new Republican candidates have stepped forward to …

How Americans Feel About The War In Israel

October 16th, 2023

1:04:14

In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the Hamas attacks in Israel and ongoing war …

War And A Speakerless House

October 9th, 2023

1:04:35

The Hamas attacks on Israel dominated American politics over the weekend, with candidates and politicians sharing their reactions to the violence and …

How Washington Avoided A Shutdown

October 2nd, 2023

1:04:51

The government did not shut down over the weekend, contrary to the expectations of many. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the congressional machinations that led to a 45-day extension of current …

It's Now Or Never For The GOP Candidates

September 28th, 2023

39:24

The crew reacts to the second Republican presidential primary debate in this late night podcast.

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Why Our Politics Are Stuck In 2016

September 25th, 2023

1:10:29

We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former …

Workers Are Striking And Americans Are Into It

September 18th, 2023

1:10:24

Welcome aboard the Acela, listeners. Today on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we are taking a break from the campaign trail and heading to …

Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color

September 11th, 2023

1:15:37

Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect …

Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?

September 6th, 2023

56:51

Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins …

Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut

August 28th, 2023

1:15:49

This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis …

Lessons From A Trump-Less Debate

August 24th, 2023

47:57

The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the podcast.

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What The GOP Primary Looks Like In The Early States

August 21st, 2023

42:30

Game time for the Republican presidential primary begins in earnest this week. The first debate is being held in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and it marks the beginning of a five-month countdown to the Iowa caucuses, during …

Three Georgia Law Professors Weigh In On Trump's Indictment

August 15th, 2023

39:59

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a fourth time, now in Fulton County, Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 …

Who Is The Likeliest GOP VP Candidate?

August 14th, 2023

1:05:44

Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend …

Ohio Voters Weigh In On Abortion (Indirectly)

August 7th, 2023

1:01:37

Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and it’s a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional …

Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation

August 2nd, 2023

34:02

Did former President Donald Trump conspire to defraud the United States, conspire to obstruct an official proceeding, actually obstruct that …

July Was Hot As Hell. Do Voters Care?

July 31st, 2023

1:05:11

Calculations from the World Meteorological Organization suggest that July was the hottest month on record. Throughout the month, heat records were …

Who'd Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?

July 24th, 2023

58:36

It is widely believed that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a third time in the coming days or weeks, as he received a target letter from the Department of Justice last week. The potential federal …

Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden

July 17th, 2023

58:10

Campaign finance figures from the second quarter of 2023 were released over the weekend. They offered a first glimpse at many of the presidential campaigns’ finances, since most candidates announced their bids during …

What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'?

July 10th, 2023

58:37

Love it or hate it, this is President Biden’s economy and he’s taking credit for it. In recent weeks, Biden has been rolling out his economic pitch …

How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election

July 3rd, 2023

53:19

The Supreme Court wrapped up its business for the term last week, closing out a docket that touched on the Voting Rights Act, affirmative action in university admissions, student loan forgiveness, business services to …

What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?

June 26th, 2023

1:09:37

It's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's …

Are Millennials Getting More Conservative?

June 19th, 2023

1:12:53

There’s been a lot thrown at Republican voters over the past few weeks. The field of primary candidates has doubled; the leading contender in the primary was federally indicted on 37 counts related to his handling of …

How Trump's Classified Documents Case Could End

June 13th, 2023

47:45

Former President Donald Trump was arraigned on Tuesday at a federal courthouse in Miami in relation to his alleged retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice. He pleaded not guilty, setting in motion a …

Emergency Podcast: Trump's Indictment, The Sequel

June 9th, 2023

44:03

Former President Donald Trump was indicted on federal charges on Thursday related to classified documents he took from the White House. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the severity and possible …

The GOP Field Gets Crowded

June 5th, 2023

59:38

By the end of this week, the number of major candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is expected to grow to nine. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North …

There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now

May 30th, 2023

1:03:14

In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what’s in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up …

The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis

May 25th, 2023

41:27

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on …

Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?

May 22nd, 2023

59:28

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential …

Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?

May 18th, 2023

56:35

Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. …

Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel

May 15th, 2023

59:44

On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia …

How Immigration Shapes American Politics

May 11th, 2023

33:10

Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health …

Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?

May 8th, 2023

49:33

King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. …

How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live

May 4th, 2023

42:49

For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts …

Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024

May 1st, 2023

1:09:42

President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages …

Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans?

April 24th, 2023

46:53

Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what …

Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!

April 21st, 2023

1:29:11

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New …

The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion

April 17th, 2023

56:46

The Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication …

Americans Are Feeling Better These Days

April 13th, 2023

37:39

According to Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were …

The Politics Of AI

April 10th, 2023

1:07:24

How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes …

The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday

April 5th, 2023

43:11

Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of …

Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023

April 3rd, 2023

50:51

The crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last …

Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted

March 31st, 2023

21:40

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a …

New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart

March 30th, 2023

49:34

In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political …

Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)

March 27th, 2023

46:08

After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and …

Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?

March 23rd, 2023

52:45

All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an …

The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back

March 20th, 2023

45:04

The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of …

The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census

March 16th, 2023

55:59

The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how …

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

March 13th, 2023

1:02:08

Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, …

Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm

March 9th, 2023

50:54

Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of …

The Poll That Ended Dilbert

March 6th, 2023

1:03:25

Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a …

Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'

March 2nd, 2023

44:31

American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: …

How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear

February 27th, 2023

1:03:16

To mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. …

What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection

February 21st, 2023

57:53

It's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal …

Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?

February 16th, 2023

42:13

This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The …

American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted

February 13th, 2023

57:01

The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. We’re still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy …

Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech

February 8th, 2023

48:44

President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. The crew …

How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

February 6th, 2023

1:00:19

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the …

The Politics Of Loneliness

February 2nd, 2023

51:28

Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the …

There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023

January 31st, 2023

1:03:57

Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the …

Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing.

January 26th, 2023

40:05

In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues …

What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common

January 23rd, 2023

1:10:03

The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santos’s career might unfold. In light of new data showing …

California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy

January 17th, 2023

54:02

Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald …

There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right?

January 12th, 2023

34:22

As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and …

What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP

January 9th, 2023

58:23

The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santos’s scandals …

How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics

January 2nd, 2023

47:24

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio …

Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident

December 26th, 2022

35:47

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio …

The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump

December 22nd, 2022

49:26

As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and …

What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms

December 19th, 2022

40:30

Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as …

Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?

December 15th, 2022

57:55

As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led …

We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022

December 12th, 2022

1:09:15

With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also …

How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff

December 7th, 2022

39:45

The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff.

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Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race

December 5th, 2022

56:24

Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping …

Is Democracy All Good Now?

December 1st, 2022

33:46

Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like.

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If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will?

November 28th, 2022

1:09:59

Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current …

Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?

November 16th, 2022

33:49

Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

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Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022

November 14th, 2022

1:01:29

Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions.

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When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate

November 10th, 2022

54:16

Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew …

The Red Wave Didn't Happen

November 9th, 2022

17:37

In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the 

The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk

November 7th, 2022

49:10

Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen …

The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending

November 4th, 2022

51:29

The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle.

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How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?

November 2nd, 2022

56:21

Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less …

The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge

October 31st, 2022

55:37

With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth.

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Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk

October 27th, 2022

1:08:12

In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how …

How A College Education Divides American Voters

October 24th, 2022

1:00:10

The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research …

Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs!

October 20th, 2022

52:45

Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a …

The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022

October 17th, 2022

59:55

The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider …

Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?

October 13th, 2022

51:53

Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk.

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From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms?

October 10th, 2022

1:00:31

It’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking …

Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters?

October 6th, 2022

40:10

The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the …

What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats?

October 3rd, 2022

59:52

The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the …

There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress

September 29th, 2022

56:47

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk."

Tickets to the …

Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats

September 26th, 2022

58:00

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer …

Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?

September 19th, 2022

1:00:02

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They …

It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls

September 15th, 2022

55:13

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners.

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Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval?

September 12th, 2022

1:01:52

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on …

What To Expect Between Now And Election Day

September 6th, 2022

1:02:49

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and …

Why Sarah Palin Lost

September 1st, 2022

43:42

Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick …

Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics?

August 29th, 2022

1:02:53

The crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then …

If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble

August 24th, 2022

46:44

Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The …

The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them

August 22nd, 2022

1:03:16

What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives …

What Liz Cheney Might Do Next

August 17th, 2022

43:47

Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.

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Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?

August 15th, 2022

52:37

In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe …

Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle

August 10th, 2022

44:13

The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.

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Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?

August 8th, 2022

59:41

The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how …

Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion

August 3rd, 2022

50:55

The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also …

All The Political News You Missed Last Week

August 1st, 2022

1:12:09

The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party …

The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again)

July 25th, 2022

1:05:15

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that …

Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.

July 19th, 2022

1:07:33

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling

Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?

July 14th, 2022

53:27

In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to …

The Supreme Court Episode

July 11th, 2022

1:09:16

With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the …

Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?

July 5th, 2022

56:33

The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former …

The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!

June 30th, 2022

40:17

The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the …

What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now

June 28th, 2022

1:08:20

The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent …

Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

June 24th, 2022

32:15

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on …

Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?

June 21st, 2022

1:00:18

The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. …

More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley

June 15th, 2022

33:56

Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and …

Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?

June 13th, 2022

1:00:04

The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also …

Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?

June 8th, 2022

41:50

The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and …

The Democratic Divides In California

June 6th, 2022

53:44

The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of 

Are Democrats Actually In Disarray?

May 31st, 2022

1:08:47

The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, …

Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails

May 25th, 2022

40:07

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.

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Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia?

May 23rd, 2022

1:00:14

The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning …

What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November

May 18th, 2022

38:23

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of …

Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania?

May 17th, 2022

55:12

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a …

The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws

May 12th, 2022

41:10

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have …

How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States

May 10th, 2022

56:52

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local …

The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion

May 4th, 2022

33:40

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme …

Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft

May 3rd, 2022

1:17:47

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic …

How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right

April 28th, 2022

39:45

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is …

Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft

April 25th, 2022

1:01:39

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). 

Learn more …

Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency

April 21st, 2022

45:55

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As …

How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office?

April 18th, 2022

58:42

The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age …

Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism

April 14th, 2022

37:02

Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.

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Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington

April 11th, 2022

57:52

The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome …

Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree?

April 7th, 2022

31:02

As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke …

Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble?

April 4th, 2022

58:37

The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the …

How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue

March 31st, 2022

36:42

Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. …

Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away?

March 28th, 2022

56:48

The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey …

The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings

March 24th, 2022

38:25

Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia …

The Most Consequential Governor’s Races

March 21st, 2022

1:05:29

Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the …

What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP?

March 17th, 2022

35:36

The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the …

The Political Price Of Gas

March 14th, 2022

49:32

The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices …

How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War

March 10th, 2022

41:21

Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and …

Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia?

March 7th, 2022

48:33

The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it …

Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas

March 2nd, 2022

37:23

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.

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Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

February 28th, 2022

1:05:49

The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of …

What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness?

February 22nd, 2022

1:00:25

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and …

Is Boris Johnson Finished?

February 17th, 2022

52:23

Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the …

Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting

February 14th, 2022

55:54

The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party …

Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem

February 10th, 2022

36:18

Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By …

Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean?

February 7th, 2022

1:03:35

The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a …

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