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FiveThirtyEight Politics

200 EpisodesProduced by FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate SilverWebsite

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

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How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

February 6th, 2023

1:00:19

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the …

The Politics Of Loneliness

February 2nd, 2023

51:28

Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the …

There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023

January 31st, 2023

1:03:57

Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the …

Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing.

January 26th, 2023

40:05

In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues …

What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common

January 23rd, 2023

1:10:03

The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santos’s career might unfold. In light of new data showing …

California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy

January 17th, 2023

54:02

Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald …

There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right?

January 12th, 2023

34:22

As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and …

What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP

January 9th, 2023

58:23

The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santos’s scandals …

How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics

January 2nd, 2023

47:24

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio …

Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident

December 26th, 2022

35:47

Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio …

The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump

December 22nd, 2022

49:26

As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and …

What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms

December 19th, 2022

40:30

Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as …

Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?

December 15th, 2022

57:55

As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led …

We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022

December 12th, 2022

1:09:15

With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also …

How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff

December 7th, 2022

39:45

The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff.

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Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race

December 5th, 2022

56:24

Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping …

Is Democracy All Good Now?

December 1st, 2022

33:46

Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like.

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If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will?

November 28th, 2022

1:09:59

Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current …

Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?

November 16th, 2022

33:49

Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

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Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022

November 14th, 2022

1:01:29

Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions.

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When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate

November 10th, 2022

54:16

Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew …

The Red Wave Didn't Happen

November 9th, 2022

17:37

In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the 

The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk

November 7th, 2022

49:10

Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen …

The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending

November 4th, 2022

51:29

The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle.

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How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?

November 2nd, 2022

56:21

Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less …

The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge

October 31st, 2022

55:37

With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth.

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Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk

October 27th, 2022

1:08:12

In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how …

How A College Education Divides American Voters

October 24th, 2022

1:00:10

The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research …

Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs!

October 20th, 2022

52:45

Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a …

The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022

October 17th, 2022

59:55

The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider …

Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?

October 13th, 2022

51:53

Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk.

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From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms?

October 10th, 2022

1:00:31

It’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking …

Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters?

October 6th, 2022

40:10

The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the …

What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats?

October 3rd, 2022

59:52

The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the …

There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress

September 29th, 2022

56:47

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk."

Tickets to the …

Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats

September 26th, 2022

58:00

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer …

Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?

September 19th, 2022

1:00:02

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They …

It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls

September 15th, 2022

55:13

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners.

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Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval?

September 12th, 2022

1:01:52

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on …

What To Expect Between Now And Election Day

September 6th, 2022

1:02:49

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and …

Why Sarah Palin Lost

September 1st, 2022

43:42

Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick …

Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics?

August 29th, 2022

1:02:53

The crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then …

If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble

August 24th, 2022

46:44

Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The …

The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them

August 22nd, 2022

1:03:16

What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives …

What Liz Cheney Might Do Next

August 17th, 2022

43:47

Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.

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Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?

August 15th, 2022

52:37

In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe …

Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle

August 10th, 2022

44:13

The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.

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Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?

August 8th, 2022

59:41

The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how …

Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion

August 3rd, 2022

50:55

The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also …

All The Political News You Missed Last Week

August 1st, 2022

1:12:09

The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party …

The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again)

July 25th, 2022

1:05:15

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that …

Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.

July 19th, 2022

1:07:33

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling

Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?

July 14th, 2022

53:27

In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to …

The Supreme Court Episode

July 11th, 2022

1:09:16

With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the …

Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?

July 5th, 2022

56:33

The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former …

The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!

June 30th, 2022

40:17

The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the …

What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now

June 28th, 2022

1:08:20

The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent …

Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

June 24th, 2022

32:15

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on …

Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?

June 21st, 2022

1:00:18

The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. …

More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley

June 15th, 2022

33:56

Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and …

Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?

June 13th, 2022

1:00:04

The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also …

Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?

June 8th, 2022

41:50

The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and …

The Democratic Divides In California

June 6th, 2022

53:44

The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of 

Are Democrats Actually In Disarray?

May 31st, 2022

1:08:47

The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, …

Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails

May 25th, 2022

40:07

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.

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Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia?

May 23rd, 2022

1:00:14

The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning …

What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November

May 18th, 2022

38:23

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of …

Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania?

May 17th, 2022

55:12

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a …

The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws

May 12th, 2022

41:10

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have …

How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States

May 10th, 2022

56:52

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local …

The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion

May 4th, 2022

33:40

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme …

Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft

May 3rd, 2022

1:17:47

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic …

How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right

April 28th, 2022

39:45

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is …

Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft

April 25th, 2022

1:01:39

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). 

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Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency

April 21st, 2022

45:55

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As …

How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office?

April 18th, 2022

58:42

The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age …

Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism

April 14th, 2022

37:02

Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.

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Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington

April 11th, 2022

57:52

The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome …

Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree?

April 7th, 2022

31:02

As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke …

Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble?

April 4th, 2022

58:37

The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the …

How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue

March 31st, 2022

36:42

Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. …

Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away?

March 28th, 2022

56:48

The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey …

The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings

March 24th, 2022

38:25

Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia …

The Most Consequential Governor’s Races

March 21st, 2022

1:05:29

Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the …

What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP?

March 17th, 2022

35:36

The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the …

The Political Price Of Gas

March 14th, 2022

49:32

The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices …

How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War

March 10th, 2022

41:21

Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and …

Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia?

March 7th, 2022

48:33

The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it …

Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas

March 2nd, 2022

37:23

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.

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Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

February 28th, 2022

1:05:49

The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of …

What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness?

February 22nd, 2022

1:00:25

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and …

Is Boris Johnson Finished?

February 17th, 2022

52:23

Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the …

Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting

February 14th, 2022

55:54

The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party …

Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem

February 10th, 2022

36:18

Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By …

Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean?

February 7th, 2022

1:03:35

The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a …

Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters

February 3rd, 2022

42:10

Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the …

The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked

January 31st, 2022

58:37

The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of …

Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring

January 26th, 2022

27:56

The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader …

Why Politicians — Like Manchin And Sinema — Go Rogue

January 24th, 2022

59:49

The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of …

Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw

January 18th, 2022

49:17

The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They …

How Likely Is Another Civil War?

January 13th, 2022

40:19

In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence …

How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out

January 10th, 2022

52:38

The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the …

Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point

January 5th, 2022

54:53

In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with …

What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021

December 27th, 2021

58:39

The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What …

Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better

December 21st, 2021

1:08:21

President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew …

How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP?

December 13th, 2021

49:32

According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one …

Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump?

December 9th, 2021

46:47

Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President …

Why Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Are Going For It In 2022

December 6th, 2021

57:33

On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.

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What SCOTUS — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe

December 2nd, 2021

41:21

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior …

About Those 2024 Polls ...

November 29th, 2021

48:18

The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.

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What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For

November 22nd, 2021

54:31

The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular …

What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver

November 18th, 2021

47:55

Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.

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The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling

November 15th, 2021

1:00:43

We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to …

This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change

November 12th, 2021

46:13

On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there …

Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy?

November 8th, 2021

1:05:32

Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 …

A Good Election Night For Republicans

November 3rd, 2021

34:48

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other …

Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond

November 1st, 2021

1:07:49

The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot …

Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond

October 28th, 2021

41:51

We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help …

What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats’ Spending Bill?

October 25th, 2021

55:32

The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill. 

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Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy

October 21st, 2021

36:28

Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still …

What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular?

October 18th, 2021

1:03:28

The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a …

What Happens When Local News Disappears

October 14th, 2021

45:38

Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by …

The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling

October 11th, 2021

58:24

The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They …

Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19

October 7th, 2021

54:00

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the …

Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other?

October 4th, 2021

55:43

The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also …

How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data

September 30th, 2021

39:17

The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and …

Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?

September 27th, 2021

56:07

The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative …

What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections

September 23rd, 2021

55:33

It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral …

Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?

September 20th, 2021

59:30

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach …

The California Recall Election Wasn't Close

September 15th, 2021

26:58

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort …

Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?

September 13th, 2021

59:39

The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how …

Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days

September 7th, 2021

54:41

American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of …

Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas

September 2nd, 2021

37:07

Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew …

The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?

August 30th, 2021

51:15

As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a …

Model Talk: How Climate Models Work

August 19th, 2021

44:13

Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced …

What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan

August 16th, 2021

49:57

The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed …

Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns

August 10th, 2021

32:27

The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

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Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?

August 9th, 2021

54:06

The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two …

How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal

August 4th, 2021

35:28

The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually …

Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive

August 2nd, 2021

56:57

The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the …

What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike

July 29th, 2021

43:25

The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the …

Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?

July 26th, 2021

1:02:35

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the …

The Great Inflation Debate

July 22nd, 2021

37:29

According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara …

Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?

July 19th, 2021

1:03:28

Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster

Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling

July 15th, 2021

41:23

We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our …

A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?

July 12th, 2021

51:10

The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a …

Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away

July 8th, 2021

33:36

Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why …

What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020

July 6th, 2021

52:20

Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered …

What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term

July 2nd, 2021

45:02

On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner …

Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan

June 28th, 2021

56:14

A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and …

Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions

June 24th, 2021

44:15

Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC …

What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation

June 22nd, 2021

57:34

The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also …

Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race

June 17th, 2021

48:45

Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City …

The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections

June 14th, 2021

1:03:08

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over …

How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics

June 10th, 2021

47:54

During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At …

One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms

June 7th, 2021

1:02:39

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the …

How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party

June 4th, 2021

39:52

In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most …

The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up

June 1st, 2021

1:08:46

The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 …

What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us

May 28th, 2021

43:27

New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the …

A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death

May 24th, 2021

59:18

History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk …

20 Questions With Nate And Galen

May 21st, 2021

39:59

Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

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Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?

May 17th, 2021

55:25

The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the …

Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'

May 13th, 2021

43:11

Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first …

If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?

May 10th, 2021

49:36

What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the …

How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior

May 6th, 2021

46:28

The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma …

Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas

May 3rd, 2021

1:00:13

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an …

Biden's First 100 Days

April 29th, 2021

58:55

The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

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A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority

April 26th, 2021

51:55

The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change …

Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.

April 22nd, 2021

49:35

Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our …

Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay

April 19th, 2021

1:00:14

The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of …

How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer

April 15th, 2021

34:51

We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

Learn more …

Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan

April 12th, 2021

1:03:47

The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control

Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?

April 8th, 2021

43:28

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven

How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?

April 5th, 2021

1:05:22

The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a …

Elections To Watch In 2021

April 1st, 2021

47:53

The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major …

Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy

March 29th, 2021

52:59

The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short …

The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed

March 25th, 2021

51:06

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the …

The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically

March 22nd, 2021

49:47

The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political …

How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics

March 18th, 2021

43:46

Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has …

Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?

March 15th, 2021

56:54

The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the …

Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?

March 11th, 2021

50:36

With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big …

Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear

March 9th, 2021

57:57

The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss …

How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics

March 4th, 2021

44:44

This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and …

Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?

March 1st, 2021

50:56

The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is …

What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs

February 25th, 2021

31:46

Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

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Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular

February 23rd, 2021

55:02

The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee …

How The Crisis In Texas Happened

February 18th, 2021

35:24

Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures …

Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump

February 16th, 2021

56:47

Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also …

The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument

February 12th, 2021

33:05

While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape …

What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do

February 8th, 2021

56:33

Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment …

What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?

February 4th, 2021

1:01:50

Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their …

Biden's Response To The Pandemic

February 1st, 2021

53:07

Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President …

The Final Model Talk Of 2020

January 28th, 2021

34:12

Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for …

Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another

January 25th, 2021

54:51

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew …

The Biden Presidency Begins

January 20th, 2021

36:29

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to …

Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?

January 19th, 2021

58:47

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen …

Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment

January 14th, 2021

34:52

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, …

What Led To The Attack On The Capitol

January 12th, 2021

1:12:08

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and …

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