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FiveThirtyEight Politics

200 EpisodesProduced by FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate SilverWebsite

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

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What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular?

October 18th, 2021


The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a …

What Happens When Local News Disappears

October 14th, 2021


Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by …

The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling

October 11th, 2021


The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They …

Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19

October 7th, 2021


Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the …

Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other?

October 4th, 2021


The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also …

How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data

September 30th, 2021


The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and …

Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?

September 27th, 2021


The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative …

What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections

September 23rd, 2021


It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral …

Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?

September 20th, 2021


Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach …

The California Recall Election Wasn't Close

September 15th, 2021


In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort …

Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?

September 13th, 2021


The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how …

Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days

September 7th, 2021


American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of …

Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas

September 2nd, 2021


Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew …

The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?

August 30th, 2021


As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a …

Model Talk: How Climate Models Work

August 19th, 2021


Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced …

What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan

August 16th, 2021


The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed …

Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns

August 10th, 2021


The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?

August 9th, 2021


The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two …

How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal

August 4th, 2021


The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually …

Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive

August 2nd, 2021


The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the …

What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike

July 29th, 2021


The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the …

Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?

July 26th, 2021


Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the …

The Great Inflation Debate

July 22nd, 2021


According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara …

Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?

July 19th, 2021


Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster

Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling

July 15th, 2021


We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our …

A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?

July 12th, 2021


The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a …

Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away

July 8th, 2021


Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why …

What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020

July 6th, 2021


Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered …

What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term

July 2nd, 2021


On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner …

Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan

June 28th, 2021


A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and …

Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions

June 24th, 2021


Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC …

What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation

June 22nd, 2021


The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also …

Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race

June 17th, 2021


Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City …

The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections

June 14th, 2021


The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over …

How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics

June 10th, 2021


During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At …

One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms

June 7th, 2021


Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the …

How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party

June 4th, 2021


In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most …

The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up

June 1st, 2021


The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 …

What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us

May 28th, 2021


New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the …

A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death

May 24th, 2021


History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk …

20 Questions With Nate And Galen

May 21st, 2021


Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

Can You Win A Fight With A Goose?

May 17th, 2021


The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the …

Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'

May 13th, 2021


Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first …

If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?

May 10th, 2021


What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the …

How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior

May 6th, 2021


The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma …

Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas

May 3rd, 2021


The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an …

Biden's First 100 Days

April 29th, 2021


The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority

April 26th, 2021


The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change …

Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.

April 22nd, 2021


Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our …

Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay

April 19th, 2021


The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of …

How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer

April 15th, 2021


We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan

April 12th, 2021


The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control

Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?

April 8th, 2021


Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven

How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?

April 5th, 2021


The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a …

Elections To Watch In 2021

April 1st, 2021


The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major …

Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy

March 29th, 2021


The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short …

The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed

March 25th, 2021


Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the …

The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically

March 22nd, 2021


The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political …

How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics

March 18th, 2021


Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has …

Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?

March 15th, 2021


The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the …

Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?

March 11th, 2021


With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big …

Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear

March 9th, 2021


The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss …

How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics

March 4th, 2021


This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and …

Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?

March 1st, 2021


The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is …

What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs

February 25th, 2021


Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular

February 23rd, 2021


The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee …

How The Crisis In Texas Happened

February 18th, 2021


Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures …

Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump

February 16th, 2021


Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also …

The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument

February 12th, 2021


While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape …

What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do

February 8th, 2021


Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment …

What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?

February 4th, 2021


Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their …

Biden's Response To The Pandemic

February 1st, 2021


Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President …

The Final Model Talk Of 2020

January 28th, 2021


Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for …

Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another

January 25th, 2021


Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew …

The Biden Presidency Begins

January 20th, 2021


On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to …

Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?

January 19th, 2021


This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen …

Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment

January 14th, 2021


On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, …

What Led To The Attack On The Capitol

January 12th, 2021


The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and …

What Will The GOP Do Now?

January 7th, 2021


The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.

Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia

January 4th, 2021


The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.

Goodbye To 2020

December 28th, 2020


In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the …

Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States

December 22nd, 2020


The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington …

What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?

December 17th, 2020


Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.

Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results

December 14th, 2020


The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the …

What's The Deal With Pardons?

December 10th, 2020


Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.

The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP

December 9th, 2020


The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent …

How To Make Polls Better

December 4th, 2020


Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done …

What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?

November 30th, 2020


The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to …

Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy

November 23rd, 2020


Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team …

Will Georgia Stay Blue?

November 19th, 2020


Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.

What Divided The Electorate In 2020

November 16th, 2020


The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.

Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

November 12th, 2020


In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the …

Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand

November 9th, 2020


The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine …

Biden Is Set To Be The Next President

November 7th, 2020


The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.

Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency

November 6th, 2020


As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of …

Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer

November 5th, 2020


After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In …

The Election Isn't Over

November 4th, 2020


The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.

Final Reflections Before The Election

November 3rd, 2020


In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that …

What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us

November 1st, 2020


Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the …

How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

October 31st, 2020


Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure …

Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters

October 30th, 2020


This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the …

The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election

October 29th, 2020


There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses …

How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020

October 28th, 2020


In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.

How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election

October 27th, 2020


Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and …

October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections

October 26th, 2020


The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.

Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree

October 23rd, 2020


In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of …

The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here

October 23rd, 2020


The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.

How Voting Is Going So Far

October 21st, 2020


Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.

The Most Competitive Races In 2020

October 20th, 2020


Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning …

Embrace The Uncertainty

October 19th, 2020


The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue …

Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased

October 16th, 2020


In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.

What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings

October 15th, 2020


Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from …

The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate

October 12th, 2020


The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.

Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens

October 9th, 2020


In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.

Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate

October 8th, 2020


The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.

What We Know About The President's Health

October 5th, 2020


During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the …

Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19

October 2nd, 2020


The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?

October 1st, 2020


In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or …

Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate

September 30th, 2020


The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.

The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns

September 28th, 2020


The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax …

Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power

September 24th, 2020


In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful …

What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat

September 21st, 2020


So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once …

Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy

September 19th, 2020


In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.

Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate

September 18th, 2020


FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.

Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters

September 14th, 2020


The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their …

How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election

September 11th, 2020


Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting

September 8th, 2020


The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"

Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage

September 3rd, 2020


Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.

The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha

August 31st, 2020


The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy …

RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words

August 28th, 2020


The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal

August 27th, 2020


The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance

August 26th, 2020


The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism

August 25th, 2020


The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy

August 21st, 2020


The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role

August 20th, 2020


The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are

August 19th, 2020


The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump

August 18th, 2020


The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!

August 12th, 2020


FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.

Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick

August 11th, 2020


The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.

The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes

August 10th, 2020


Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare …

It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid

August 3rd, 2020


After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the …

A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

July 30th, 2020


Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican …

Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away

July 27th, 2020


According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the …

The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election

July 23rd, 2020


In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote …

There Aren't Secret Trump Voters

July 20th, 2020


A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is …

White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality

July 16th, 2020


In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face …

COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?

July 13th, 2020


The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also …

Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term

July 9th, 2020


FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They …

How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds

July 6th, 2020


The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a …

How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party

July 2nd, 2020


FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."

Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

June 29th, 2020


The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.

New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

June 25th, 2020


FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic

Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment

June 22nd, 2020


The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.

Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally

June 18th, 2020


In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.

Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?

June 15th, 2020


The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.

The Protests Appear To Be Working

June 12th, 2020


New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence …

Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises

June 8th, 2020


The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't …

Protests, Then And Now

June 4th, 2020


Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.

The Data Behind Police Violence

June 1st, 2020


Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.

What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him

May 28th, 2020


Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.

Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases

May 26th, 2020


The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.

One Virus, A World Full Of Responses

May 21st, 2020


The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.

Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?

May 18th, 2020


The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.

Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading

May 14th, 2020


Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done …

Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen

May 11th, 2020


The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in …

What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means

May 8th, 2020


Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.

Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation

May 4th, 2020


The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a …

The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?

April 30th, 2020


States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they …

Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?

April 27th, 2020


The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.

Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19

April 22nd, 2020


Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.

What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?

April 20th, 2020


The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.

How To Hold An Election During A Crisis

April 16th, 2020


What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?

Our 2020 Election Priors

April 13th, 2020


Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out

April 8th, 2020


The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.

Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess

April 6th, 2020


The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.

Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19

April 2nd, 2020


FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.

Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased

March 30th, 2020


The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.

COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart

March 26th, 2020


Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.

How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics

March 23rd, 2020


The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.

How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy

March 20th, 2020


Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.

How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote

March 18th, 2020


FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.

Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics

March 16th, 2020


The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.

Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic

March 16th, 2020


The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive

March 11th, 2020


The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.

Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?

March 9th, 2020


The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.

Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out

March 5th, 2020


The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.

Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?

March 4th, 2020


The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.

What's At Stake On Super Tuesday

March 2nd, 2020


The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.

Biden Wins Big In South Carolina

March 1st, 2020


The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.

How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden

February 26th, 2020


Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and …

What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate

February 26th, 2020


The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.

Sanders Wins Big In Nevada

February 23rd, 2020


Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.

Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate

February 20th, 2020


In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.

Can Bloomberg Win?!

February 18th, 2020


The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.

Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases

February 14th, 2020


Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.

Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire

February 12th, 2020


The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish …

Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview

February 10th, 2020


At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!

Live From The New Hampshire Debate

February 8th, 2020


The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.

The Results In Iowa

February 6th, 2020


The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President …

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