FiveThirtyEight Politics

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of …

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a …

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have …

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local …

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme …

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic …

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is …

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). 

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As …

The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age …

Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.

The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome …

As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke …

The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the …

Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. …

The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey …

Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia …

Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the …

The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the …

The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices …

Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and …

The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it …

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.

The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of …

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and …

Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the …

The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party …

Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By …

The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a …

Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the …

The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of …

The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader …

The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of …

The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They …

In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence …

The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the …

In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with …

The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What …

President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew …

According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one …

Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President …

On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior …

The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.

The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular …

Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.

We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to …

On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there …

Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 …

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other …

The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot …

We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help …

The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill. 

Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still …

The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a …

Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by …

The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They …

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the …

The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also …

The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and …

The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative …

It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral …

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach …

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort …

The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how …

American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of …

Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew …

As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a …

Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced …

The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed …

The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two …

The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually …

The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the …

The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the …

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the …

According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara …

Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster …

We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our …

The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a …

Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why …

Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered …

On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner …

A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and …

Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC …

The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also …

Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City …

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over …

During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At …

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the …

In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most …

The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 …

New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the …

History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk …

Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the …

Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first …

What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the …

The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma …

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an …

The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change …

Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our …

The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of …

We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control …

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven …

The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a …

The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major …

The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short …

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the …

The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political …

Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has …

The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the …

With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big …

The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss …

This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and …

The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is …

Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee …

Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures …

Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also …

While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape …

Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment …

Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their …

Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President …

Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for …

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew …

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to …

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen …

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, …

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and …

The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.

In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the …

The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington …

Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the …

Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.

The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent …

Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done …

The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to …

Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team …

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.

The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the …

The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine …

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of …

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In …

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.

In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that …

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the …

Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure …

This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the …

There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses …

In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.

Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and …

The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of …

The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.

Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning …

The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue …

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.

Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from …

The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.

The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.

During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the …

The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or …

The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax …

In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful …

So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once …

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.

FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.

The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their …

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.

The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy …

The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.

Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare …

After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the …

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican …

According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the …

In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote …

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is …

In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face …