FiveThirtyEight Politics

The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a …

Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by …

The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They …

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the …

The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also …

The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and …

The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative …

It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral …

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach …

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort …

The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how …

American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of …

Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew …

As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a …

Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced …

The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed …

The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two …

The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually …

The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the …

The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the …

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the …

According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara …

Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster …

We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our …

The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a …

Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why …

Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered …

On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner …

A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and …

Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC …

The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also …

Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City …

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over …

During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At …

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the …

In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most …

The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 …

New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the …

History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk …

Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the …

Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first …

What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the …

The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma …

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an …

The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change …

Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our …

The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of …

We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control …

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven …

The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a …

The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major …

The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short …

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the …

The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political …

Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has …

The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the …

With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big …

The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss …

This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and …

The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is …

Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee …

Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures …

Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also …

While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape …

Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment …

Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their …

Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President …

Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for …

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew …

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to …

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen …

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, …

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and …

The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.

In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the …

The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington …

Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the …

Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.

The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent …

Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done …

The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to …

Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team …

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.

The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the …

The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine …

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of …

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In …

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.

In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that …

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the …

Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure …

This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the …

There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses …

In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.

Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and …

The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of …

The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.

Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning …

The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue …

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.

Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from …

The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.

The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.

During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the …

The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or …

The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax …

In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful …

So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once …

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.

FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.

The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their …

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.

The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy …

The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.

Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare …

After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the …

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican …

According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the …

In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote …

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is …

In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face …

The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also …

FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They …

The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a …

FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."

The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic

The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.

In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.

The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.

New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence …

The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't …

Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.

Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.

Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.

The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.

The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.

Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done …

The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in …

Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.

The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a …

States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they …

The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.

Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.

The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.

What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?

Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.

The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.

FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.

The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.

Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.

The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.

Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.

FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.

The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.

The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.

The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.

The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.

The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.

The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.

Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and …

The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.

Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.

In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.

The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.

The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish …

At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!

The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.

The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President …