We review our predictions about the US Presidential Election with the benefit of hindsight, and discover how it is that Fraser can now afford a double bass.
This podcast comprises two elements. The first part is our pre-election forecasts made back in September. The second part is a discussion of those forecasts after the results were known, exploring our original beliefs at the time and how our perception of them changed once we knew the outcome. We discuss the psychology of predictions and Fraser explains how he put his money where his mouth wasn’t.
A few things we mentioned in this podcast:
- Brier Score https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score
- Murphy Decomposition https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bitstream/handle/10871/34847/revision2.pdf;jsessionid=207EB7DA71FFAF769EE2424CCC0C074C?sequence=1
Image: Ted Eytan via Flickr
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