The surprise result of Friday's Chesham and Amersham by-election has led to questions over why the Conservative lost just so badly - and why no one saw it coming. On today's Coffee House Shots, Conservative Home's Paul Goodman warns against over-reading the situation:
'When it comes to by-elections, the golden rule should be, why not presume that voters will kick the establishment? ... I really think, as I'm looking around at these Remainers coming out of their various holes and lairs, indulging these pathetic fantasies, that they have this out of proportion'
James Forsyth adds that the result isn't so much a problem for the Conservative party, as it is symptomatic of the future problems in party management. Tory MPs of various stripes have analysed the results through the lens of their personal cause, and for southern MPs, the issue stems from a tilt away from the traditional Tory base to appease the new Red Wall seats:
'Every rebel with a cause is going to say that that cause has been demonstrated by this result, and all of it will just make party management more complex.'